Acts of War oc-4 Page 17

  August shut the door behind him. He walked to the gunmetal desk and hit the autodial on his secure telephone. Bob Herbert picked up.

  "Afternoon, Colonel," Herbert said.

  "Good afternoon, Bob."

  "Turn on your computer," Herbert said. "There's a signed directive. Countersign and E-mail it back."

  August's belly burned with anticipation as he booted up the HP Pavilion and input his identification code. He still wasn't speculating, but he was eager and damned curious. In just a few seconds Paul Hood's order appeared on the screen. August read it. Striker Deployment Order No. 9 simply ordered him and his full Striker team to chopper from Quantico to Andrews Air Force Base and board the waiting C-141B. August picked up the electronic pen on the desk and signed the screen. He saved the document and returned it to Herbert.

  "Thanks," Herbert said. "Lieutenant Essex of General Rodgers's staff will meet you at the field at fifteen hundred hours. He'll have the mission overview. We'll download the details once you're airborne. However, I can tell you this much, Colonel, and it isn't pretty. Mike and the Regional Op-Center have been captured by what appear to be Kurdish terrorists."

  The burning sensation rose in August's throat.

  "Either you retrieve the facility," Herbert continued, "or according to the playbook, we close up shop. It may be necessary for us to do that before you get there, but obviously we're going to try and avoid that. Understood?"

  Close up shop, August thought. Destroy the ROC regardless of where it is or who's inside. "Yes," the colonel said. "I understand."

  "I don't go way back with General Rodgers like you do," Herbert went on, "but I enjoy and respect the hell out of him. He's the only guy I know who can quote Arnold Toynbee in one breath and lines from Burt Lancaster movies in the next. I want him back. I want them all back."

  "So do I," August replied. "And we're ready to go get them."

  "Good man," Herbert said. "And good luck."

  "Thank You," August said.

  The colonel hung up the phone. After a moment, he drew breath slowly through his nose. He let himself fill with air from the belly up, like a bottle. The "big belly'' was a trick a sympathetic prison guard had taught August when he was a POW in Vietnam. August had been sent into North Vietnam to find a Scorpion team which the CIA had recruited from among persecuted North Vietnamese Catholics in 1964. The thirteen commandos had been presumed dead. Years later, word reached Saigon that they were still alive. August and five others were sent out to find them. They discovered the ten surviving Scorpions in a prison camp near Haiphong and joined them. The Viet Cong guard, Kiet, had to do what he was doing in order to feed his wife and daughter. But he was a humanist and a Taoist who secretly taught his creed of "effortless survival" to the captives. It was as much Kiet's quietistic outlook as August's own determination which had enabled him to survive.

  August exhaled, stood quietly for a moment, then left the office. His step was quicker than before, his eyes more intense.

  As August tried to assimilate the shock of what had happened, he didn't think of Mike Rodgers or the ROC. He thought only about getting his team airborne. That was another trick he'd learned as a POW. It was easier to deal with a crisis if you bit it off in digestible chunks. Suspended by your wrists nose-deep in a rank, fly-covered cesspool, or baking in a coffin-sized cage under the noon sun, you didn't wonder when you were going to get out. That kind of thinking would drive you mad. You tried to last as long as it took for a cloud to travel from one treetop to another, or until a five-inch-long spider crossed an open patch of earth, or until you counted off one hundred slow Buddah Belly breaths.

  He was ready, he told himself. And so was his team. At least they'd better be. Because in about half a minute he was going to start kicking Striker ass as it had never been kicked before.

  TWENTY-TWO

  Monday, 3:13 p.m.,

  over Chesapeake Bay

  The State Department 727 took off from Andrews at 3:03, and was quickly swallowed by the low hanging clouds over Washington. The customized jet would remain in the clouds for as long as possible. That was standard State Department procedure to keep them from being visually sighted and targeted by ocean-based terrorists. It made for a safer ride, albeit a bumpy one.

  Paul Hood knew very few of the other forty-odd passengers. There were a number of brawny, silent DSAs — Diplomatic Security Agents — a handful of tired-looking reporters, and a lot of career diplomats with leather briefcases and black suits. There had been a good deal of pre-takeoff networking going on, and ABC State Department correspondent Hully Burroughs had already organized the traditional plane pool. Everyone who had wanted to play kicked in a dollar and picked a number. An official timekeeper had been named and when it was time to land, would count off the seconds from the time the pilot told everyone to buckle in until the instant the wheels touched the ground. Whichever passenger guessed the correct number of seconds between the two events won the pot.

  Hood had avoided it all. He'd taken the window seat and put young Warner Bicking on the aisle. Hood had found that chronic talkers tended to talk less if they had to lean over. Especially if they'd already had a few drinks.

  Hood's pager beeped at 3:07. It was Martha calling, probably to continue the conversation they'd begun in the car. She hadn't been happy about the fact that the President had sent him to Damascus instead of her. After all, she'd argued, she'd had more diplomatic experience than anyone at Op-Center and she knew some of the players. She'd wanted to get on the plane or meet him in London, requests which Hood had denied. For one thing, he'd explained, this was the President's idea, not his. For another, if she were gone, then Bob Herbert would be left in charge of Op-Center. Hood didn't want him doing anything but working on saving the ROC and its crew. Martha had gotten off the phone angry.

  Hood was not permitted to use his cell phone until tea minutes into the flight, so he waited until the flight attendant gave the okay for electronic equipment to be used. Before calling back, Hood booted his laptop. Since the phone lines were not secure, Martha would have to refer him to coded information on the diskettes if there were any new developments.

  When Martha picked up the phone, Hood knew that she was no longer quite so angry. He could tell at once from Martha's hollow monotone that something had happened.

  "Paul," she said, "there's been a change in the weather where you're headed."

  "What kind of change?" he asked.

  "It's gone up to seventy-four degrees," she said. "Winds are from the northwest. Nice red sunset."

  "Seventy-four degrees, northwest winds, red sunset," he repeated.

  "Correct."

  "Hold on," Hood said.

  He reached into his small carrying case and removed the red-tabbed diskette from its pocket. That already told him that things weren't good. The situation somewhere was code red. After booting the diskette, Hood carefully typed in the code 74NW on the computer. The machine hummed for several seconds, then asked for Hood's authorization code. He punched in PASHA, which stood for Paul, Alexander, Sharon, Harleigh, and Ann — his mother's name — and then he waited again.

  The screen went from blue to red. He clicked the mouse on the white letters OP in the upper left corner.

  "Warner," Hood said as the file opened, "I think you'd better have a look at this as well."

  Bicking leaned over as Hood began scrolling through the file:

  Op-Center Projection 74NW/Red

  1. Subject: First-Stage Syrian Response to Turkish Mobilization.

  2. Provocation Scenario: Syrian and Turkish Kurds jointly strike inside Turkey.

  3. Response Scenario: Turkey moves five-six hundred thousand troops to Syrian border to prevent further incursions. (Access 75NW/Red for larger Turkish response.)

  4. Result: Syria mobilizes.

  5. Likely Composition of Syrian Force: Available manpower is 300,000, distributed between Syrian Army, Syrian Navy, Syrian Air Force, and Syrian Air Defense Forces. Police and
Security Forces consisting of 2,000 troops would be assigned to defend Damascus and the President. Additional conscripts would be culled from workforce within the first three days of mobilization. Total additional force of 100,000 wen between the ages of 15–49 would be fielded within two weeks. Inadequately trained, the conscripts would probably suffer casualties of 40–45 % within the next two weeks. Syria would be betting on the fact that wars in the region tend to be brief.

  6. Turkish Diplomatic Efforts: Intensive. Would not want war.

  7. Syrian Diplomatic Efforts: Moderate. Given highly secular Turkish government, Syria's ninety% Muslim population (11.3 million of 13 million) would accept a conflagration as a jihad or holy war.

  8. Time Frame for Initial Conflict: Given an emotionally charged environment created by terrorist activities, there is an 88 % chance that hostilities would occur within the first forty-eight hours. As reactions cool, there is a 7 % chance that hostilities would occur in the next twenty-four hours and a 5 % chance that hostilities would occur thereafter.

  9. First Wave Initial Conflict: Turkey will not want to be the aggressor for fear of triggering Greek response. However, current policy permits the pursuit of terrorists by strike force if "the nature of the crime is of such a nature to warrant pursuit. (Access Turkish Military White Papers 1995–1997, file 566-05/Green.) To discourage internal discord resulting from inactivity or perceived weakness, a measured Turkish response is deemed extremely likely. Syrian response to a Turkish incursion will be swift and absolute. A multi-force retaliation is likely within and without Syrian borders. (Access Syrian Military White Papers 1995–1997, file 566-87/Green.)

  10. Second Wave Initial Conflict: Turkey will attack any Syrian troops within its borders but almost certainly will not move into Syria. That would surely arouse Muslims living within Turkey. At that point, both sides will have shown sufficient muscle to withdraw and stand only to lose from further hostilities. Diplomatic efforts will intensify and are considered likely to prevail. The small uncertainty factor will be influenced largely by concomitant response from neighboring nations (see 11., below).

  11. Projected Response from Surrounding Countries: It is expected that all nations in the region will assume some form of defensive military posture. Several are likely to take offensive steps.

  A. Armenia: The government will support Turkey unless Turkey supports Azerbaijan. In either case, a military response is unlikely against any target but Azerbaijan. Government security forces will watch the Kurdish minority very closely but will not be likely to take military measures against them. (Access Armenian White Paper, file 364-2120/S/White, for U.S. response to Armenian situations.)

  B. Bulgaria: Of the 210,000 active soldiers, only the Frontier Troops are likely to be mobilized. The population is 8.5 % Turkish. There is no reason why Turkish forces should cross the border. Unless they do so, the Bulgarian troops will avoid confrontations.

  C. Georgia: The government will back Turkey but make no military gestures.

  D. Greece: Mediterranean patrols by the Hellenic Navy will be increased. Confrontations may erupt if Turkish patrols are encountered. If a second wave of hostilities erupts between Turkey And Syria, Greece will most likely remain neutral while moving against Aegean territory claimed by both Ankara and Athens. (Access Imia Islet file, 645/E/Red.)

  E. Iran: Iran will almost certainly remain militarily inactive. Fifth column activity will certainly increase.

  F. Iraq: During any first-wave hostilities, Baghdad will increase attacks on Iraqi Kurds to prevent them from joining with Turkish and Syrian Kurds. During a second wave, Baghdad may seek to press old claims against Kuwait. (Access Wadi al Batin file 335/NW/Red.)

  G. Israel: Israel's partnership with Turkey covers only mutual military maneuvers. It is not a mutual defense pact, though Israeli intelligence resources will be placed at Turkey's disposal. If a second wave of hostilities erupts, Israel may agree to flying limited sorties.

  H. Jordan: Jordan exercises joint air force maneuvers with Israel. While they would remain neutral in an Israeli war with Arabs, they will join a Turkish war against Syria if the United States permits them to.

  Hood cleared the screen. "Any chances the weather will change again?" he asked Martha.

  "It looks like the front at 11F-Frank is not happening," she replied.

  Hood scrolled back. He repeated what Martha had said for Bicking's benefit. Iraq hadn't moved against the Kurds, but he knew that wouldn't last. Recent intelligence reports put the Iraqi military at over two million strong. Many of those men were young newcomers, untested in battle and probably scared. Others were veterans, many of them itching to avenge their humiliation during the Persian Gulf War.

  "We're also thinking that 11D-David and 11G-George may move in sooner than expected," Martha said.

  Hood was not surprised by either of those. With elections coming up, the Greek President needed to do something blazingly patriotic to win the right wing. Taking long-disputed lands from an embattled Turkey would accomplish that. As for Israel, the hardline government would love the opportunity to strike at an enemy under the auspices of defending an ally.

  "What're things like on the home, front?" Hood asked.

  "The meteorologists are watching and talking," Martha said. "A few picnics have been called off in the area, but only one umbrella has been broken out."

  That meant military leave in the region had been canceled and U.S. troops were on a low-level Defcon One alert.

  "I'll keep you up to date," Martha said, "but I can tell you there are a lot of long faces at the weather headquarters."

  The weather headquarters was the White House. "They're worried about storms, I'm sure," Hood said, "and they'll probably get a few."

  "They can live with a few," Martha said. "It's a big one they're worried about."

  Hood thanked her and hung up. He turned to Bicking. The spindly twenty-nine-year-old was a former associate professor of social sciences at Georgetown University. His area of expertise was Political Islam, and he was one of four political experts recently added to the Op-Center team to advise Paul Hood on foreign affairs.

  "What's your take on this?" Hood asked.

  Biking twirled a longish lock of black hair around his index finger. It was a habit he had whenever he was thinking. "There's a very, very good chance that it'll all blow up. And when it does, it could well drag the rest of the world along with it. From Turkey it can move up through Greece and Bulgaria into Romania and Bosnia. With the Iranian presence there, they can drop-kick this thing up into Hungary, Austria, and straight into Germany. There are two million Turks living in Germany. Of those, half a million are Kurds. They'll pop for sure. At the same time it can move from Turkey in the other direction, up through southern Russia."

  "Don't pull any punches," Hood said. "Give it to me straight."

  "Sorry," Bicking said, "but you've got all these ancient hatreds being fanned and interacting — Turkey and Greece, Syria and Turkey, Israel and Syria, Iraq and Kuwait, and various combinations and multiples thereof. The smallest thing can trigger any of them. And once those locusts start hopping—"

  "You've got a swarm," Hood said.

  "The swarm," Bicking replied.

  Hood nodded unhappily. Suddenly, there was going to be a lot more to do in Damascus than save the ROC.

  Bicking twirled his hair a little faster. He peered at Hood from under heavily lidded eyes. "Here's a thought," he said. "Let me work on the ROC situation while you and Dr. Nasr concentrate on preventing a major conflagration."

  "There may not be a lot of time to work on the ROC situation," Hood said. "If there's even a remote chance that it will be used by the Kurds, the President is going to order the ROC found and destroyed."

  "Pronto," Bicking added. "And finding it won't be a problem. As soon as they uplink, the military will have signal to lock on to—"

  Hood grabbed the phone and dialed. "That's how we buy time."

  "How?"

 
"If the captors manage to turn on the ROC, the signal has to go through the satellite. When it does, there may be a way Matt Stoll can shut it down. If the ROC is dead in the water, we may be able to convince the President to give us time to negotiate a release."

  Bicking twirled rhythmically. "It's good," he said.

  Hood waited for the connection to go through. The plan to destroy the ROC was a simple one. There was no self-destruct button. It had to be designed as a completely unarmed facility in order to be allowed into many foreign nations. Instead, wherever it went, it could be taken out by a Tomahawk missile, which could be launched from ground, air, or sea and had a range of over three hundred miles. Equipped with terrain-following computers, it could hit the ROC virtually anywhere.

  Stoll's assistant answered the phone. He put Matt on at once.

  "Are we secure?" Stoll asked breathlessly.

  "No," Hood said.

  "All right, then listen," the computer expert told him. "You know that missing rock and roll group?"

  "Yes," Hood said. They didn't have code phrases to describe the situation with the ROC, so Stoll was improvising.

  "There's an ambient level of juice which radiates out when their amps are on," Stoll said. "Bob lost that when the rockers pulled the plug earlier."

  "I understand," Hood said.

  "Okay. Now our high-dying friend the ES4 is beginning to pick up a signal again."

  The ES4 was the Electromagnetic Spectrum Satellite Surveillance System. The sensors were a component in a chain of mufti-purpose satellites which read terrestrial radiation in frequencies from 1029 to zero hertz and in wavelengths from 10-13 centimeters to infinity. These readings included gamma rays, X-rays, ultra-violet radiation, visible light, infrared, microwaves, and radio waves.